Key Takeaways:
- Memphis, Tennessee ranked as the deadliest city for rush hour crashes, with the highest rate and risk score in the study.
- Phoenix, Arizona had the second highest risk score, but had the highest overall number of fatal rush hour crashes.
- Texas dominates the rankings, with nine cities appearing in the top 70 and three (Houston, Dallas and San Antonio) landing in the top 10.
- Reno, Nevada ranked 16th, but had the highest share of fatal crashes during rush hour, with 28.09% of its fatal crashes occurring during commute times.
- Rural areas had a higher share of fatal crashes during rush hour (20.65%) compared to urban areas (17.30%).
- Failure to yield right-of-way was the top behavior linked to fatal rush hour crashes, followed by inattentive driving and improper lane usage.
For some, the daily commute offers a rare pocket of personal time — a chance to catch up on podcasts, enjoy a playlist, or simply unwind in silence. But for many others, it’s a stressful transition between home and work, defined by bumper-to-bumper traffic, honking horns, and frayed patience. No matter how you experience it, rush hour often brings more vehicles, more pressure and a higher risk of serious crashes.
In this study, we analyzed fatal crash data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) between 2019 and 2023 to find out which cities see the most deadly outcomes during rush hour.
We focused on the 100 most populous cities in the U.S., for which we calculated a risk score based on the number of fatal crashes during weekday morning and evening commute times. Rush hour is defined as the bimodal period of the day with the highest density of people and vehicles on the road. While rush hour times may vary by city, we defined these periods as 6 to 9 a.m. and 4 to 7 p.m. Only cities with over 20 fatal crash reports during rush hour were included in the ranking.
In addition, we examined trends over time, compared national differences between urban and rural areas, and explored common behaviors linked to these crashes to better understand the risks drivers face during rush hour.
Which U.S. Cities Have the Deadliest Rush Hour?
Below is a ranking of the most populous U.S. cities based on fatal crashes during weekday rush hour from 2019 to 2023. The ranking includes rush hour fatalities, fatal crashes, the percentage of fatal crashes that occurred during rush hour and the rate of fatal rush hour crashes per 100,000 residents.
Based on our analysis, Memphis has the deadliest rush hour, with a risk score of 728. The city’s position at the top of the list was largely driven by a staggering 5.37 rush hour deaths per 100,000 residents — the highest rate in the nation.
Following Memphis, Phoenix ranked second with a risk score of 718, while Houston came in third with a score of 589.
Sunbelt Cities Were Overrepresented
Sun Belt cities dominate the top of the rankings, comprising 19 of the top 25 and nine of the top 10.
Why Big Cities Like NYC and Chicago Rank Lower
Despite notorious congestion, New York City ranked just 24th. This supports the “U-shaped” theory of traffic risk: Fatalities tend to rise at moderate levels of congestion but stay lower when traffic is either very light or very heavy. NYC’s fatal crash rate remains relatively low when adjusted for population.
A similar pattern appeared in Chicago, which was recently found to rival New York City for the worst traffic congestion in the United States and ranked 36th in our study.
Los Angeles, however, defied this trend and ranked fourth overall with a risk score of 568 — higher than other large metros like NYC and Chicago. Its layout, limited public transit and car-dependent culture likely contribute to the elevated risk, keeping it in the congestion “danger zone” where crash risk increases.
To see how these patterns have shifted over time, the chart below shows the number of fatal crashes that occurred during weekday rush hour periods each year from 2019 to 2023.
During the observation period, nearly 52,000 people were killed in rush hour crashes.
When looking at the year-over-year figures, it appears that fatal crashes during this period are on the rise — despite a slight decline from 2022 to 2023:
- 2019: 6,424 fatal rush hour crashes
- 2020: 6,599 crashes — even with a drop in overall traffic during the pandemic
- 2021: 7,295 crashes
- 2022: 7,393 crashes
- 2023: 6,999 crashes
While the slight decline in 2023 offers a glimmer of hope, it’s too early to tell whether this marks the beginning of a sustained downward trend or just a temporary dip in an ongoing public safety issue.
Where Are Rush Hour Crashes More Common? Urban vs. Rural Breakdown
In our earlier ranking, we saw how urban areas like Reno, Nevada and Richmond, Virginia stood out for their share of fatal rush hour crashes. Now, we broaden the scope to compare how often these crashes occur in urban areas versus rural regions across the country.
While it’s easy to assume that rush hour is more dangerous in urban areas due to heavier congestion alone, the data tells a different story. Rush hour accounts for a larger share of fatal crashes in rural areas than in urban settings.
Over the past five years, 20.65% of rural crashes happened during rush hour, compared to 17.30% in urban areas. Although cities experience more crashes overall, this pattern may point to unique risks in rural settings during commuting hours, such as longer travel distances, higher speeds or fewer traffic control features like stoplights and designated turn lanes.
An alternative explanation for the differences in rush hour crash shares between urban and rural areas may relate to how driving is spread throughout the day.
In dense cities, traffic volume stays high beyond traditional peak hours due to constant activity. Urban areas typically see movement during the morning and afternoon commute, but also during midday for commerce and school pickups, as well as in the evenings and late at night for events and nightlife.
Public transportation, along with a higher number of pedestrians and cyclists, reduces reliance on personal vehicles, especially in cities like New York, where many people walk or take the subway. These factors contribute to a more even distribution of driving throughout the day. In contrast, rural areas have less public transit and fewer destinations that generate off-peak travel.
To explore this further, we looked at how fatal rush hour crashes vary by road type in both urban and rural areas. Below are the five types of roads where fatal rush hour crashes most frequently occur in the U.S.
The chart reveals distinct differences in how fatal rush hour crashes are distributed between rural and urban areas. Rural areas tend to experience these crashes more often on highways, such as state highways, U.S. highways, or interstates. Specifically, 37.46% of fatal rush hour crashes in rural areas occur on state highways, compared to 25.44% in urban areas.
While state highways are also the most common road type involved in urban crashes, urban areas show a more varied distribution. For instance, 19.35% of fatal rush hour crashes in cities occur on local municipal streets, a road type that is much less represented in rural crash data.
This rural concentration on highways may help explain why a larger share of rush hour crashes in these areas are fatal. Highways typically involve higher speeds, longer travel distances and fewer traffic control measures, all of which can increase the likelihood of severe outcomes in a crash.
Next, we explore how drivers are behaving on the road during these rush hour crashes.
What Behaviors are Related to Fatal Rush Hour Crashes?
Below are the most common driving behaviors linked to fatal crashes during rush hour. These patterns reveal how risky decisions and everyday habits can lead to deadly outcomes when roads are at their busiest. As FARS files are not always consistent year-by-year, this analysis on behaviors covers crashes from the last two years.
These behaviors include both specific actions behind the wheel and broader driving styles, many of which most drivers have likely witnessed during their commutes or even taken part in themselves.
The most common driving behavior associated with fatal rush hour crashes was failure to yield right-of-way, observed in 2,324 drivers. This accounted for 16.15% of all drivers involved in fatal crashes during rush hour periods.
The second most frequent behavior was careless, inattentive or improper driving, which was noted in 1,877 drivers, or 13.04% of those involved in fatal rush hour crashes. This type of behavior may be especially relevant during rush hour due to factors like early mornings, fatigue at the end of the workday, or increased roadway stress. This behavior could be considered a style of driving, in the same way that “erratic, reckless, or negligent driving” and “aggressive driving or road rage” is. These are other behaviors that made the top ten list of driving behaviors associated with fatal rush hour crashes.
Next was improper lane usage, present in 1,520 drivers, accounting for 10.54% of those involved. This behavior includes actions such as weaving through traffic, failing to stay within marked lanes, or making sudden lane changes. These behaviors may be more common during rush hour when roads are congested and drivers are more likely to jockey for position or respond abruptly to traffic slowdowns.
While most of these behaviors occurred at similar rates during weekend fatal crashes in the same time periods, failure to yield right-of-way stood out. It was 38% more likely to be a contributing factor in fatal rush hour crashes on weekdays compared to the same hours on the weekend.
Understanding Rush Hour Risk Across America
Rush hour, by definition, is the time when the greatest number of people and vehicles are on the road, making it a critical window for analyzing crash outcomes. This period is largely shaped by the traditional workweek, with traffic patterns centered around commutes to and from office hubs. Since most major companies operate in urban areas with the infrastructure to support large-scale commerce, we focused our analysis on fatal rush hour crashes in the nation’s most populous cities.
Starting with the 100 largest U.S. cities, we narrowed the list to 70 by including only those with over 20 fatal crash reports during weekday commute hours over a five-year period. Several cities emerged with notably high risk, including Memphis which ranked highest, followed by Phoenix and Houston. In contrast, cities like New York and Chicago, despite heavy congestion, had lower risk scores due to fewer fatal rush hour crashes per capita.
Our findings also revealed that while cities experience more total crashes, rural areas account for a higher share of fatal crashes during rush hour. One possible explanation is that urban crashes are more evenly distributed throughout the day. In contrast, rural commuters may concentrate their travel within these peak periods and are often traveling longer distances at higher speeds, typically on highways, which can increase the severity of crashes during peak hours.
These patterns may align with a theory some traffic analysts propose about the relationship between congestion and crash severity following a U-shaped curve: the most dangerous conditions occur at moderate to high levels of congestion, when traffic is dense enough to increase pressure and risk, but not yet slowed to speeds that reduce impact severity.
But no matter the setting — urban or rural — driver behavior plays a crucial role in the outcome of a crash. When roads are most congested, even small mistakes can have devastating consequences. According to our analysis, the most common contributing factor in fatal rush hour crashes was failure to yield right-of-way, involved in 16.15% of cases. This was followed by careless or inattentive driving (13.04%) and improper lane usage (10.54%). These behaviors often reflect rushed or impatient driving styles that become more dangerous during peak traffic. Notably, failure to yield was 38% more likely to be a factor in weekday rush hour fatalities compared to the same hours on weekends, highlighting how commute-related stress and urgency can intensify risk.
While crash data from the last year shows a decline, continued efforts to address driver behavior, especially in high-pressure traffic conditions, remain crucial. In addition to infrastructure improvements and safer road designs, education on safe driving habits and managing stress during commutes is equally important in reducing the risk of fatal crashes during rush hour.
Methodology
This study analyzed fatal crash data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) between 2019 and 2023 to assess fatal crash risk during rush hour in the 100 most populous U.S. cities. Rush hour was defined as the morning commute (6 to 9 a.m.) and evening commute (4 to 7 p.m.). Only cities with at least 20 fatal crashes during these periods were included.
For each city, we calculated a risk score based on four factors: total rush hour fatalities, yearly average of fatal rush hour crashes (rounded to the nearest whole number), percentage of fatal rush hour crashes relative to all fatal crashes and the yearly rate per capita of fatal rush hour crashes. Per capita calculations were based on population data from the 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) estimates. Risk scores were rounded to the nearest whole number, but rankings were made prior to rounding.
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